Peak Command · Guide · Forecasting
Forecasting with uncertainty
calculated honestly.
How to plan honestly: ranges instead of point values, visible assumptions, three scenarios and a regular check of forecast against reality. Put together your forecast questions here.
Which number do you have to predict although you don't know it?
2 questions in the plan. First question: Which two or three assumptions move your number most?
An honest forecast
A range. Visible assumptions.
Which two or three assumptions move your number most?
A forecast is not a promise but an assumption with numbers.
Whoever names a single number gets measured against it. Whoever names a range with assumptions can see early which assumption breaks. In Peak Command, the roadmap shows plan, forecast and reality side by side, and scenarios calculate “what if” from Peak Finance and Peak Year. A scenario changes nothing until you apply it in the owning product.
From reading to doing
Your forecast questions. For your next number.
The next forecast.
2 questions selected
- Which two or three assumptions move your number most?
E.g. close rate, average value, start date of a project.
- What would a cautious, a middle and a good case be?
The cautious case shouldn't surprise you when it happens.
What makes a forecast
credible.
It says what it doesn't know. A range with named assumptions is more useful than a precise number that is only right by chance.
Which two or three assumptions move your number most?
E.g. close rate, average value, start date of a project.
Range, not point“€480,000 to €600,000” is more honest than “€540,000”.
Named assumptionsWhich two or three values move the result most?
CheckForecast and reality side by side show how well you plan.
The playbook
From assumption to checked forecast.
Assume, calculate,
check.
Assumption → Range → Reality
- 01
Name the assumptions.
Write down the assumptions the number comes from and give each a range. The forecast range follows from the assumption ranges, not from gut feeling.
Example · Q4 (fictional)
“€480,000–600,000, at a 22–28% close rate.”“We'll do €540,000 in revenue.” - 02
Decide in scenarios.
Settle what you do in each scenario. That way you make decisions that hold in the cautious case too, and you know beforehand when you can take more risk.
Three scenariosCautious €480,000 · middle €540,000 · good €600,000.
Plan spending for the cautious case, hire only from the middle case. - 03
Check and learn.
Compare forecast and reality regularly and ask which assumption was off. Over time your ranges get narrower because you know your drivers better.
Check after three monthsMiddle forecast: €540,000. Reality: €505,000.
Close rate was 23%. Adjust the assumption for Q1.
Your quality check
Is your forecast honest?
Tick what you have checked. Your selection stays in this view only.
0 of 4 points checked
What this article is based on.
Editorial guide with a fictional example and made-up numbers. The roadmap with plan, forecast and reality and scenarios from Peak Finance and Peak Year exist in Peak Command today; scenarios change nothing until they are applied in the owning product.
- Evidence pending
Editorial guide with fictional companies and numbers. No customer data, no measured values, no customer results.
Calculate “what if”.
The what-if simulator page shows how Command calculates scenarios and where the limits are.
Frequently asked questions
Why not a single number?
A single number fakes certainty. A range shows what to plan with and what to prepare for.
How does Peak Command separate plan and forecast?
The roadmap shows plan, forecast and reality separately side by side, read from Peak Year.
Do scenarios change the numbers in Peak Finance?
No. Scenarios only calculate. Nothing changes until you apply them in the responsible app.